#039 – Winds of Change

Hello everyone! Typically I try and ensure that this newsletter reaches you every Sunday morning, but once again we are here.

This week, I found interesting insights from a massive reading of almost 200 newspapers!

Yeah, you read that right.

I get three newspapers a day and I had almost not read them for two and a half months.

So here I was, scrapping all through the weekend to distill a few interesting anecdotes I came across.

But before I delve deeper, allow me to talk to you about why do I do this.


Well, I am on a Mission

My mission has three objectives:

Indians should benefit from the wealth creation from global stock markets

All Indians should have a basic understanding of personal finance and investing principles

Atleast 100 Indians have something like this outside their house in the next 10 years

Back to insights.

Current Account Surplus

This year, India might have it’s very first Current Account Surplus.

What’s that?

Typically, as a country if you’re spending (read investing) more than you’re saving, you run a deficit.

For a developing country, it is often a good idea to run a deficit so that you keep investing capital for ensuring these investments keep ‘running’ the cycle of a multiplier effect.

More Investments > More Jobs > More Income > More Prosperity

This year, due to crude price tailwinds (India imports a LOT of Crude), reduced imports and a little subdued exports, India is all set to end the fiscal with a surplus against a deficit.

Do you think it’s a good thing?

Let me know in the comments section.

The Author of Greed & Fear finally gets Greedy on India

Being a part of the Investment community and being on the Buy Side, I do enjoy reading the iconic ‘Greed & Fear’ Report by Chris Woods from Jefferies.

So what now?

Well, Mr. Wood launches a long-only India focussed portfolio with ~17% weightage to Real Estate!

A name that caught my eye from his portfolio picks – Century Textiles.

Back in 2015, I had done a detailed analysis on this company and always thought that it was neither a paper company nor a textile company – it was a company with a massive land bank.

And well, cut to 6 years later – someone seems to be valuing the ‘intrinsic value’.

Google unveils Google Showcase

In a new move, a new breed of companies seemed to have a found a new source of Revenue.

Beta to Alpha had spoken about this almost 3-4 months back in a newsletter here.

I am talking about Media companies.

In India, it has been close to a month since this was rolled out and it also provides publishers with a new way to monetise their content and earn a license fee from Google.

While globally, this has been an issue of a lot of legal hassle, the space seems to be evolving and clearly world over, one thing is very clear.

CONTENT is KING.

What are your thoughts?


STOCKROOM SUNDAY – EPISODE 16

This was a long episode and both Vishal and I grapple with switching between Hindi and English.

Why is that?

Well, ensuring a mix of two ensures that the reach is maximised and we are able to make more and more Indians make informed choices when it comes to trading and investing decisions.

SONG OF THE WEEK

BOOK OF THE WEEK

This week, I came across an interesting book.

A book that is allegedly a ‘Secret’ used by Swiss bankers and covers the rules of risk when it comes to investments.

I did learn that this book was out of print and now has been brought back.

Yes, this has been the most expensive book I have purchased in a long time – but after reading Chapter 1 – I totally feel it is worth it.

Click here to check out the book.

PODCAST OF THE WEEK

I am extremely proud of my alma mater’s efforts.

Almost a month back – in a WhatsApp forum, dedicated to discussing markets, we learnt that three members had passed away due to Covid.

Everyone within the group immediately pooled their resources and made sure we collect a corpus to take care of their family’s expenses for atleast a year.

A lot of resources that we read around finance and investing do not cover something very sensitive yet important.

What happens after death?

Check out this podcast below covering this subject.


If you enjoy reading this newsletter every week, consider upgrading your tier of membership to Premium here.

Why upgrade to Premium?

Access to the Dashboard

I had talked about in detail in an earlier post here. In case you haven’t had a look, don’t worry, read below ⬇️


A) Access to LIVE Weekly Webinars

Every week we have an interactive hour-long webinar on YouTube (Private Access Only, yes no need to install other apps, you can join in from phone, desktop, laptop, tablet, satellite – anything).

These webinars are typically around four broad categories:

  1. Company Deep Dives – A bulk of our sessions are around this. We try and dissect companies and look at competitive advantages for the companies alongside industry tailwinds. Typically the structure is as follows:
    • Industry Overview
    • Revenue Drivers for the Company
    • Catalysts / Tailwinds that make A/B exciting
    • Valuations – DCF, Forward P/E, EV/EBITDA
    • Risks
    • Optionality in Businesses
  2. Industry Analysis – An overview on a particular industry to understand the drivers / factors in play to ensure you get a complete understanding of the sector. For Instance – An Overview of the Paper / Hotel Sector etc.
  3. Concept Sessions – This would cover areas like understanding the basics when it comes to investing and valuations. For Instance – An Introduction to DCF, Understanding Real Estate Investing etc.
  4. Monthly Updates – Typically these would be around result updates of companies that we’ve covered earlier especially during the end of a particular month covering quarterly updates and going deep on their results.

Typically one can expect 40-45 webinars in a year. The endeavour however is to deliver 52.


B) Access to Premium Content

Every month we plan on doing one detailed post to bring some superior insights. These are exclusively available for our premium subscribers.

To get a sense of the range of topics, you can access the dashboard here.

In the pipeline – Webinar Transcripts.


C) Access to a Community of lifelong learners

The endeavour at Beta to Alpha has always been that we continue to keep learning together and keep growing as a community. Today, our cohort consists of first time investors, fund managers and even ex-CXO’s who interact every week and bring out the best in our discussions.

Let’s show you one example.

This week, we did a deep dive on Natco Pharma. The cohort helped in bringing out better insights.


Who should consider Subscribing?

For Learners

  • If you are someone who wishes to learn and understand the idea behind dissecting companies and also take deep dives around industries or complex financial concepts.
  • Typically access to these learnings are reserved for the handful ‘elite’ of insiders working in the fund management industry.

For Active Investors

  • Typically the asset management industry charges anything between 2-4% based on the degree of involvement chosen (Mutual Fund / ETF / PMS etc.)
  • If you’re someone having a portfolio of ~10 lakhs being managed actively, think of the annual subscription as the management fee of ~1.9%. At 20, it becomes ~0.9% so on and so forth.

1-on-1 Consultation

Presently, I intend to do 1-on-1 Consultation on a weekly basis. Since this will involve more effort, I intend to open this for only 15 people.

If you wish to be a part of the ‘inner cohort’, book a consultation call here.

Do you have any feedback for the above? Feel free to reply to this e-mail.

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About the author

Saket Mehrotra

Full-time Fund Manager | Sensex Follower since '09 | Free + Premium insights at Beta to Alpha & Alpha Swing | CA, CS
Senior Associate - Equities at Tusk Investments. Ex - PMI, ITC.

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